Recession Probability Tracker
Monitor key economic indicators that signal recession risk
Recession Probability Tracker
Recession Probability
17%
Risk Level: Low
Key Economic Indicators
Yield Curve Spread (10Y-2Y)Threshold: 0%
Negative spread has historically preceded recessions
Unemployment RateThreshold: 5%
Rising unemployment signals economic weakness
Consumer ConfidenceThreshold: 80
Below 80 indicates pessimism about the economy
Manufacturing PMIThreshold: 50
Below 50 signals manufacturing contraction
Leading Economic Index (LEI)Threshold: 0%
Negative MoM change suggests economic slowdown
Credit Spread (Baa-Aaa)Threshold: 2%
Widening spreads indicate rising default risk
Default indicator values are illustrative estimates. Adjust them to explore scenarios. This tool is educational and should not be used for financial decisions.
How We Measure Recession Risk
Our tracker combines six key economic indicators, each weighted by their historical reliability in predicting recessions:
- Yield Curve Spread — Inverted yield curves preceded every US recession since 1970
- Unemployment Rate — Rising unemployment signals economic contraction
- Consumer Confidence — Consumer sentiment drives spending (70% of GDP)
- Manufacturing PMI — Below 50 indicates manufacturing contraction
- Leading Economic Index — Conference Board composite of forward-looking indicators
- Credit Spreads — Widening spreads signal increased default risk
This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute economic forecasting advice.